28 nm can be good enough for a lot of things, and that's where open source could eventually become a viable option.
We will eventually reach a point where shrinking transistors provides diminishing returns, which should give open-source tooling and processes more time to close the gap. But we're probably still at least a decade away from seeing how that plays out, and who knows what happens with quantum computing, new materials, 3D integration, or some other semiconductor breakthrough in the meantime.
Even then, I don't think open source necessarily catches the absolute state of the art. Unless a startup fab decides to build its own EDA stack and open-source it as a way to attract customers, there will probably always be some gap between open and commercial tooling. The question is whether that gap eventually stops mattering for most designs
We will eventually reach a point where shrinking transistors provides diminishing returns, which should give open-source tooling and processes more time to close the gap. But we're probably still at least a decade away from seeing how that plays out, and who knows what happens with quantum computing, new materials, 3D integration, or some other semiconductor breakthrough in the meantime.
Even then, I don't think open source necessarily catches the absolute state of the art. Unless a startup fab decides to build its own EDA stack and open-source it as a way to attract customers, there will probably always be some gap between open and commercial tooling. The question is whether that gap eventually stops mattering for most designs