I built acceptodds.com a prediction market for research paper. Think polymarket but not with real money.
It now has several markets including ICLR 2027 acceptance, Neurips 2026 papers and OpenAI Math results and over 2k registered traders.
It's an experiment and the hope would be to get a better signal of paper quality than the current review system which is under heavy strain due to AI submissions.
It now has several markets including ICLR 2027 acceptance, Neurips 2026 papers and OpenAI Math results and over 2k registered traders.
It's an experiment and the hope would be to get a better signal of paper quality than the current review system which is under heavy strain due to AI submissions.
Larry Wasserman has an excellent essay that partly inspired this work: https://www.stat.cmu.edu/~brian/zach-00/765-2019/764-2016/we...
If you have suggestions for this lmk and go make some trades to help sort out the good from the bad!