You can be right for the wrong reasons and you can be wrong for the right reasons. The economics of many of these businesses are disconnected from their market valuations, and there are examples of investors outright saying "none of this matters, let's meme together" (most notably, GameStop).
In general, the stock market is in a somewhat weird place because most people in the US who have some money just don't have anything else to do with it. It's not productive to keep it in savings or treasuries, we don't invest in friends' businesses because we don't have friends, real estate is too expensive, we don't collect art or antiques because that's for old people... so YOLO in the stock market it is.
So yeah, I don't think it's wrong to criticize the Anthropic IPO as nearly impossible to justify by anything other than vague hopes and dreams. But that doesn't mean it won't make you money.
In general, the stock market is in a somewhat weird place because most people in the US who have some money just don't have anything else to do with it. It's not productive to keep it in savings or treasuries, we don't invest in friends' businesses because we don't have friends, real estate is too expensive, we don't collect art or antiques because that's for old people... so YOLO in the stock market it is.
So yeah, I don't think it's wrong to criticize the Anthropic IPO as nearly impossible to justify by anything other than vague hopes and dreams. But that doesn't mean it won't make you money.