I don't think these conclusions are obvious. For example, just because someone doesn't use the frontier models, doesn't mean they are not aware of their capabilities.
At the same time, the novelty of AI has been making it very hard to calibrate. I'd think that "manual coding is dead" and "cars drive themselves" are obvious to everyone, but sometimes I'm surprised.
At the same time, the novelty of AI has been making it very hard to calibrate. I'd think that "manual coding is dead" and "cars drive themselves" are obvious to everyone, but sometimes I'm surprised.