I think we'll see an unbelievable upheaval as companies figure out that while the technical aspects of some jobs can (and should) be automated, the interpretation of those technical aspects and other higher order, but not strictly inherent processes can't. By upheaval I mean companies closing because they replace staff with AI, and lose things along the way because of it. They won't see it until it's too late, because of the pile of money they're saving.
My example comes from maintenance in machine shops. My dad's siblings were almost all employed in machining in some fashion. One uncle was maintenance for a local large company. They decided they could move maintenance from in-house specialists and contract that work to a multi-state massive company; anyone can follow a maintenance manual right? All you need are the proper certifications and everything is cool, right? The cost was less, and the number of maintenance staff on site actually went up. Great for the owners.
But what they lost was consistency and understanding in the process that eventually led to closing the company. My uncle was there every day all year long for decades and could hear and feel in his feet when something was going wrong with a machine regardless of the maintenance schedule approved by the company that manufactured the machines. The new outside company didn't pay as well, and didn't have great benefits, which meant that they cycled through staff very regularly. No one was there consistently for more than a year or two. Even though they were technically following the manufacturers recommended maintenance schedule, machines went down. Machines then stayed down for days or weeks longer than they should've, because the expertise to repair either wasn't there, or the person leading the job would quit and they would have to cycle in a new maintenance person. They lost jobs, customers took work other places. 8 years later the company closed.
There are lessons in this kind of thing, but nobody learns them.
My example comes from maintenance in machine shops. My dad's siblings were almost all employed in machining in some fashion. One uncle was maintenance for a local large company. They decided they could move maintenance from in-house specialists and contract that work to a multi-state massive company; anyone can follow a maintenance manual right? All you need are the proper certifications and everything is cool, right? The cost was less, and the number of maintenance staff on site actually went up. Great for the owners.
But what they lost was consistency and understanding in the process that eventually led to closing the company. My uncle was there every day all year long for decades and could hear and feel in his feet when something was going wrong with a machine regardless of the maintenance schedule approved by the company that manufactured the machines. The new outside company didn't pay as well, and didn't have great benefits, which meant that they cycled through staff very regularly. No one was there consistently for more than a year or two. Even though they were technically following the manufacturers recommended maintenance schedule, machines went down. Machines then stayed down for days or weeks longer than they should've, because the expertise to repair either wasn't there, or the person leading the job would quit and they would have to cycle in a new maintenance person. They lost jobs, customers took work other places. 8 years later the company closed.
There are lessons in this kind of thing, but nobody learns them.