No, they won't become a viable alternative:
- Worse compatibility with the millions of Android apps already out there.
- Hardware vendors (outside Apple) all target Android.
- The usability of Android/iOS is far better than non-Android Linux phones.
- The security of non-Android Linux phones is in a bad state (e.g. lacking proper app sandboxing). Heck, even the Android emulation layers that some of these phones have, throw the strong Android sandbox model out of the window.
The answer is very obvious and it is AOSP. Even though Google is trying to close AOSP more (e.g. by not pushing source continuously to the AOSP Git repos and keeping QPR1/3 for themselves), it is still an open source system. Play Services can either be run sandboxed or emulated with microG. AOSP allows alternative systems to hit the ground running, you get great app compatibility, a tested security model, great usability, and support from hardware vendors, including vendors that are alternative friendly (used to be Pixel, now Motorola, Fairphone, etc.). If ever needed, AOSP could be forked and it would still be leagues ahead of non-Android Linux phones.
All the downsides that apply to AOSP-based systems (like things getting blocked by Play Integrity, unlockable bootloaders) also apply to non-Android Linux systems.
- Worse compatibility with the millions of Android apps already out there.
- Hardware vendors (outside Apple) all target Android.
- The usability of Android/iOS is far better than non-Android Linux phones.
- The security of non-Android Linux phones is in a bad state (e.g. lacking proper app sandboxing). Heck, even the Android emulation layers that some of these phones have, throw the strong Android sandbox model out of the window.
The answer is very obvious and it is AOSP. Even though Google is trying to close AOSP more (e.g. by not pushing source continuously to the AOSP Git repos and keeping QPR1/3 for themselves), it is still an open source system. Play Services can either be run sandboxed or emulated with microG. AOSP allows alternative systems to hit the ground running, you get great app compatibility, a tested security model, great usability, and support from hardware vendors, including vendors that are alternative friendly (used to be Pixel, now Motorola, Fairphone, etc.). If ever needed, AOSP could be forked and it would still be leagues ahead of non-Android Linux phones.
All the downsides that apply to AOSP-based systems (like things getting blocked by Play Integrity, unlockable bootloaders) also apply to non-Android Linux systems.