Yes -> every 18 months they've gotten 90% more efficient for the same level of quality for about 5 years. There's little sign that trend is slowing. If anything, there's reason to believe that System 1 models (plus potentially 1-2-3 workflows) may increase that over the next 3-5 years.
You'll know when the trend stops -> when the intelligence differential between smaller models like 7B starts to grow instead of shrink from 32B models -> that means 7B is getting about as smart as it can get. Then, 32B will follow next, then 70B, etc etc.
You'll know when the trend stops -> when the intelligence differential between smaller models like 7B starts to grow instead of shrink from 32B models -> that means 7B is getting about as smart as it can get. Then, 32B will follow next, then 70B, etc etc.
We haven't yet seen that at any size AFAIK.