Amazon recently moved $8B in GPUs to a SPV to hide away their expenses. Oracle warned their data center isn’t going to be on schedule. Worst of all, none of the big players are reporting enough deprecations to match up with GPU sales.
All this indicates to me that loads of GPUs were only purchased on paper or are sitting in warehouses unused. This almost certainly means a drop in orders followed by a drop in RAM prices (though that would indicate a demand drop to investors, so maybe it’s better for stock prices to keep paying to bills bigger warehouses and stuff them full of unused GPUs).
The second RAM prices normalize, local LLM becomes much cheaper. A machine that doesn’t make much sense at $10-15k suddenly becomes a lot more feasible at $3-5k. If those stored GPUs flood the market, we might see even bigger price drops.
All this indicates to me that loads of GPUs were only purchased on paper or are sitting in warehouses unused. This almost certainly means a drop in orders followed by a drop in RAM prices (though that would indicate a demand drop to investors, so maybe it’s better for stock prices to keep paying to bills bigger warehouses and stuff them full of unused GPUs).
The second RAM prices normalize, local LLM becomes much cheaper. A machine that doesn’t make much sense at $10-15k suddenly becomes a lot more feasible at $3-5k. If those stored GPUs flood the market, we might see even bigger price drops.