As per another of my comments, Alphabet, applying learning curves arbitrarily far into the future, recon it will take SpaceX launching 370,000 tons to LEO to make the costs come down enough to be worth it: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2511.19468
That's not even $100/kg, that's $200/kg.
Even my bull case puts that ($200/kg) 10 years off, which is so far away it lacks relevance just because compute and AI models move so much faster than that timescale; my bear case says that's about 45 years off.
Always account for how over-optimistic Musk's public timelines are. Starship has only just a few days ago managed its first circular orbit, but when he first talked about it:
The basic game plan is like we're going to send a mission to Mars with every Mars opportunity from 2018 onwards. So and they occur approximately every 26 months. So you know, we're establishing cargo flights to Mars that people can count on for cargo.
That's not even $100/kg, that's $200/kg.
Even my bull case puts that ($200/kg) 10 years off, which is so far away it lacks relevance just because compute and AI models move so much faster than that timescale; my bear case says that's about 45 years off.
Always account for how over-optimistic Musk's public timelines are. Starship has only just a few days ago managed its first circular orbit, but when he first talked about it:
- Musk, 2016: https://elonmuskarchive.org/fr/video/code-conference-2016-06...