My prediction is that the pluralistic axes will come back to China, but they will be superficial and strictly controlled. The recovering axes will be aesthetic and consumptive such as fandoms, hobby subcultures, fitness, foreign credentials... They will give young people somewhere to hold face when the main ladder rejects them.
Notably, these axes will be different from the pre-1949 ones: lineage, religion, and reputation came from institutions that were alternative sources of authority. The 2021 crackdowns on fan clubs and gaming showed the state will regulate any subculture that starts organizing people outside the approved channels. So I expect a split: people with exit options (e.g., overseas degrees, foreign income, portable skills) get a real pluralistic status life, while everyone else stays on the single entangled axis, where competition likely intensifies as the pool narrows to those who cannot leave.
As this progresses, we basically just watch to see if any new axis produces its own gatekeepers not credentialed by the state. I'm guessing every one instead gets an official association within a few years of reaching noticable scale.
My prediction is that the pluralistic axes will come back to China, but they will be superficial and strictly controlled. The recovering axes will be aesthetic and consumptive such as fandoms, hobby subcultures, fitness, foreign credentials... They will give young people somewhere to hold face when the main ladder rejects them.
Notably, these axes will be different from the pre-1949 ones: lineage, religion, and reputation came from institutions that were alternative sources of authority. The 2021 crackdowns on fan clubs and gaming showed the state will regulate any subculture that starts organizing people outside the approved channels. So I expect a split: people with exit options (e.g., overseas degrees, foreign income, portable skills) get a real pluralistic status life, while everyone else stays on the single entangled axis, where competition likely intensifies as the pool narrows to those who cannot leave.
As this progresses, we basically just watch to see if any new axis produces its own gatekeepers not credentialed by the state. I'm guessing every one instead gets an official association within a few years of reaching noticable scale.