Average people cannot tell reliably isn’t an appropriate or interesting test tho, otherwise Eliza and markov models etc. the framing that matters is explicitly adversarial. Play like your life depends on it instead of rooting for the machine, and you can’t win?
One way to play the game is causals and counterfactuals where Humans perform at like 90%+. Models can get close to that, but want some causal cot harness, and until the routing problem is completely solved, then that will necessarily degrade performance elsewhere, say in understanding jokes or poetry.
Check out cladder benches and related, lookup roughly equivalent psych research on children, etc. Even too-good performance is a signal as well!
Certainly if you think about this stuff a bit, accept the adversarial by default framing, and play to actually win.. it’s crazy that we are going around saying this is not only solved but solved 10 years ago.
One way to play the game is causals and counterfactuals where Humans perform at like 90%+. Models can get close to that, but want some causal cot harness, and until the routing problem is completely solved, then that will necessarily degrade performance elsewhere, say in understanding jokes or poetry.
Check out cladder benches and related, lookup roughly equivalent psych research on children, etc. Even too-good performance is a signal as well!
Certainly if you think about this stuff a bit, accept the adversarial by default framing, and play to actually win.. it’s crazy that we are going around saying this is not only solved but solved 10 years ago.