Here are my biggest risks for Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX that don't seem to get the attention they deserve:
1. What happens to your existing hardware investments when NVidia releases new hardware that allows buyers to run the same models at a fraction of the cost in energy times? IMHO performance-per-Watt is going to be the only significant metric here. Yes, your existing hardware will still work but efficiency is going to be the name of the game;
2. How are you going to deal with the threat of open weight models that can be run locally and/or or cloud GPU infrastructure? We already have relatively affordable hardware (ie Mac Studios) that can run models as large as 500B-1T parameters with 3-4 bit quantization. That's only going to get better; and
3. The only use cases for AI really are:
a) Raising prices;
b) Cutting costs, particularly labor; and
c) Military applications such as targeting and autonomous drone and missile operation.
A society where even 20% of people end up unemployed is one that catastrophically fails.
1. What happens to your existing hardware investments when NVidia releases new hardware that allows buyers to run the same models at a fraction of the cost in energy times? IMHO performance-per-Watt is going to be the only significant metric here. Yes, your existing hardware will still work but efficiency is going to be the name of the game;
2. How are you going to deal with the threat of open weight models that can be run locally and/or or cloud GPU infrastructure? We already have relatively affordable hardware (ie Mac Studios) that can run models as large as 500B-1T parameters with 3-4 bit quantization. That's only going to get better; and
3. The only use cases for AI really are:
a) Raising prices;
b) Cutting costs, particularly labor; and
c) Military applications such as targeting and autonomous drone and missile operation.
A society where even 20% of people end up unemployed is one that catastrophically fails.