A much deeper analysis on the falling price per task was published yesterday by Epoch AI [1]. It's a real statistical analysis and comes to more defensible and grounded conclusions. The headline takeaway is:
The cost of a given level of performance often falls fastest right after that level is first achieved, that is, when it is state of the art (SOTA). We see this pattern on three of our five main benchmarks of AI capability. Averaging across all five, cost falls 66% per quarter (75× per year) for performance that has just debuted as SOTA. Two years later, prices fall half as fast, at 32% per quarter (4.7× per year).
but the analysis itself has more nuance and is a quite interesting read.
The cost of a given level of performance often falls fastest right after that level is first achieved, that is, when it is state of the art (SOTA). We see this pattern on three of our five main benchmarks of AI capability. Averaging across all five, cost falls 66% per quarter (75× per year) for performance that has just debuted as SOTA. Two years later, prices fall half as fast, at 32% per quarter (4.7× per year).
but the analysis itself has more nuance and is a quite interesting read.
[1] https://epoch.ai/publications/the-plunging-price-of-thought