Right. What's really surprising is how much better the best are. Human superforecasters, and prediction markets are surprisingly accurate too.
We could live in a world where things are much more chaotic, and the best humans (or AIs) would only be slightly better than chance. Evidently the world we live in is pretty darn predictable.
We could live in a world where things are much more chaotic, and the best humans (or AIs) would only be slightly better than chance. Evidently the world we live in is pretty darn predictable.