I think that a chance of getting things like material post-scarcity, age reversal, possibly even biological immortality... might be worth a 10% chance of human extinction.
I mean, we already know more or less how things are going to go without super-intelligence. Disease, pain, suffering, everyone dying by age 120 or so, more struggle for bread, more wars about things that seem very important in the moment but won't be interesting to anyone other than history buffs 100 years from now, more love affairs that feel intensely personal but are basically the same as billions of other love affairs that people have had, etc.
I mean, we already know more or less how things are going to go without super-intelligence. Disease, pain, suffering, everyone dying by age 120 or so, more struggle for bread, more wars about things that seem very important in the moment but won't be interesting to anyone other than history buffs 100 years from now, more love affairs that feel intensely personal but are basically the same as billions of other love affairs that people have had, etc.
Maybe it makes sense to take a risk.