Let me argue on a technicality first: None of these are
extinction level events. If global warming
disrupts 99% of all crop production, the remaining 1% is still plenty enough to sustain a stable, if miserable, population. In fact you just need about 5k people for a stable gene pool[1]. Of the classical threats, only bioweapons got a shot at extinction, but even that is hard, given the (few) remaining truly secluded settlements.
But most probably care less about human survival, and more about survival of civilization.
In this regard the strongest argument for pushing AI safety is that it is cost-effective. The climate crisis has near 100% likelihood of doing incredible harm to humans, the economy and our ecosystem. Solving the issues behind are also incredible complicated and are a multi decade coordination effort of restructuring the way most of our infrastructure and production works. The AI apocalypse might have a small likelihood of occurring, but could dwarf any issue we have encountered so far. All we have to do to significantly reduce the danger is to negotiate the equivalent of a nuclear weapons control treaty which would reduce the bottom line of … what? Ten significant companies world wide?
Its akin to discovering you are seriously ill and have a 30% chance of dying and the treatment costs 10k bucks vs. having a 1% chance of dying and the treatment costs a cent. In both cases you should pay obviously pay for the treatment (given western levels of wealth).
To be clear, above I'm presenting the argument I find most persuasive for AI control / AI slowdown. Personally, I'm beginning to fear of much higher likelihoods for catastrophic AI, given how incredible irresponsible major players like OpenAI have turned out to be. If you can't imagine how this might come to be, read https://ai-2027.com/ . It's a concrete story of how this could play out, and sometimes stories are more convincing than abstract arguments. Don't let yourself be hung up on the stated dates, though, the moral is identical if you stretch the timeline.
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1qIvFpcGkqc
But most probably care less about human survival, and more about survival of civilization.
In this regard the strongest argument for pushing AI safety is that it is cost-effective. The climate crisis has near 100% likelihood of doing incredible harm to humans, the economy and our ecosystem. Solving the issues behind are also incredible complicated and are a multi decade coordination effort of restructuring the way most of our infrastructure and production works. The AI apocalypse might have a small likelihood of occurring, but could dwarf any issue we have encountered so far. All we have to do to significantly reduce the danger is to negotiate the equivalent of a nuclear weapons control treaty which would reduce the bottom line of … what? Ten significant companies world wide?
Its akin to discovering you are seriously ill and have a 30% chance of dying and the treatment costs 10k bucks vs. having a 1% chance of dying and the treatment costs a cent. In both cases you should pay obviously pay for the treatment (given western levels of wealth).
To be clear, above I'm presenting the argument I find most persuasive for AI control / AI slowdown. Personally, I'm beginning to fear of much higher likelihoods for catastrophic AI, given how incredible irresponsible major players like OpenAI have turned out to be. If you can't imagine how this might come to be, read https://ai-2027.com/ . It's a concrete story of how this could play out, and sometimes stories are more convincing than abstract arguments. Don't let yourself be hung up on the stated dates, though, the moral is identical if you stretch the timeline.
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1qIvFpcGkqc