Lawyer here - As i explained last time we had a variant of this thread (see comment history if you are interested), this is a very complicated area that people try to make very simple.
It doesn't have to be complicated, mind you, but right now the way the law is written is basically:
1. Transmitting sports betting info between states is a federal crime unless it's legal in both states (18 U.S.C. § 1084(a))
2. The CEA regulations ban contracts that are illegal under state law (17 CFR 40.11)
3. Other forms of gambling/betting/contracts that are not sports are generally a-ok.
4. This is not a case of first impression, it's just getting relitigated because Kalshi doesn't want to follow the actual law. This has actually been pretty settled law for a long time, with new flareups maybe once a decade. Kalshi is just hoping to be treated like Uber was.
The third circuit's decision is pretty clearly "out there" in terms of existing caselaw.
However, this will end up at SCOTUS, and everything until then just doesn't matter. That will be a coin flip even though it shouldn't be
It doesn't have to be complicated, mind you, but right now the way the law is written is basically:
1. Transmitting sports betting info between states is a federal crime unless it's legal in both states (18 U.S.C. § 1084(a))
2. The CEA regulations ban contracts that are illegal under state law (17 CFR 40.11)
3. Other forms of gambling/betting/contracts that are not sports are generally a-ok.
4. This is not a case of first impression, it's just getting relitigated because Kalshi doesn't want to follow the actual law. This has actually been pretty settled law for a long time, with new flareups maybe once a decade. Kalshi is just hoping to be treated like Uber was.
The third circuit's decision is pretty clearly "out there" in terms of existing caselaw.
However, this will end up at SCOTUS, and everything until then just doesn't matter. That will be a coin flip even though it shouldn't be