> The play seems to be: lock what was once commodity compute up into datacenters depriving us regular folk of it, then sell it back to us on subscription.
I had not considered that as a possibility. It is somewhat dark and unlikely, imho, but a real possibility.
I am more inclined to believe that the fab capacity will grow over time and "commodity" compute will be available to us all again.
However, I can also imagine going back to the 60s era "hyper verticalized" mainframes, in which case, the frontier labs might not just be producing models, but chips and an ecosystem around themselves and their suppliers/customers.
I had not considered that as a possibility. It is somewhat dark and unlikely, imho, but a real possibility.
I am more inclined to believe that the fab capacity will grow over time and "commodity" compute will be available to us all again.
However, I can also imagine going back to the 60s era "hyper verticalized" mainframes, in which case, the frontier labs might not just be producing models, but chips and an ecosystem around themselves and their suppliers/customers.