1. Not really, current valuations are priced for persistent 80%+ margins based on spot. If auxiliary hardware lasts longer (I.e. next gen GPU reusing the same shell) then that reduces supply pressure and spot prices.
2. Jevon’s paradox is about total consumption, not margins. Valuations are about margins (and their projections). Many coal mine owners went bust despite increased total coal consumption.
3. Source? Gemini for example is 70% on TPU. I have yet to see data on Maia-300 beyond Microsoft PR. Remember it doesn’t have to be better it has to be more cost efficient. The overwhelming majority of inference spend does not care if token output is 20% slower if it is 50% cheaper.
> Neoclouds may very well be Nvidia’s biggest customers and this probably what Nvidia wants.
What Nvidia needs. Whether neoclouds can stay competitive vs hyperscalers paying Nvidia tax is far from clear, particularly when inference margins compress.
2. Jevon’s paradox is about total consumption, not margins. Valuations are about margins (and their projections). Many coal mine owners went bust despite increased total coal consumption.
3. Source? Gemini for example is 70% on TPU. I have yet to see data on Maia-300 beyond Microsoft PR. Remember it doesn’t have to be better it has to be more cost efficient. The overwhelming majority of inference spend does not care if token output is 20% slower if it is 50% cheaper.
> Neoclouds may very well be Nvidia’s biggest customers and this probably what Nvidia wants.
What Nvidia needs. Whether neoclouds can stay competitive vs hyperscalers paying Nvidia tax is far from clear, particularly when inference margins compress.