It almost can't not happen. No one is going to release highly powerful near-future models for the same reason no one releases how to make physically compact but megaton yield fusion devices (which even today is still not publicly known how to do). Any state, especially the two present superpowers, has little to gain and much to lose by doing that.
A model that fits on a laptop and is literally Skynet-level capable would not be released by any rational actor, which China is. (Whether someone else would make and release one is another matter.) China doesn't want Uyghur groups taking down their infrastructure, eventually it's not about the USA at all.
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K3 is almost, but not quite, competitive in August 2026, against a model that completed training last winter. There is still a gap.
A model that fits on a laptop and is literally Skynet-level capable would not be released by any rational actor, which China is. (Whether someone else would make and release one is another matter.) China doesn't want Uyghur groups taking down their infrastructure, eventually it's not about the USA at all.
--
K3 is almost, but not quite, competitive in August 2026, against a model that completed training last winter. There is still a gap.