The oversight in your thinking is that we have no proofs about how much computation is needed to break cryptography. For all we know, it could be possible to break all modern cryptosystems in under a second on a computer from a decade ago with the right algorithms.
This is how cryptography has been broken in the past: not just advances in the amount of compute we can do, but exponential speedups in the algorithms to break them. While I agree with the author of this post that modern cryptosystems are very secure and LLMs are not currently near breaking them, I don't think it's unreasonable to consider that if LLMs continue to get exponentially smarter they may make strides in cryptanalysis that we had never considered and break cryptography in unexpected ways. After all, many past cryptography breaks have come from previously unknown methods of cryptanalysis.
This is how cryptography has been broken in the past: not just advances in the amount of compute we can do, but exponential speedups in the algorithms to break them. While I agree with the author of this post that modern cryptosystems are very secure and LLMs are not currently near breaking them, I don't think it's unreasonable to consider that if LLMs continue to get exponentially smarter they may make strides in cryptanalysis that we had never considered and break cryptography in unexpected ways. After all, many past cryptography breaks have come from previously unknown methods of cryptanalysis.