Election prediction is an interesting one. The first digital prediction market on the US was election only, and it has a $500 cap. It was run by a university and had a limited scope, but it still be a surprising amount.
It did a better job of predicting election outcomes than the polls. For markets without a cap, companies have used them to have against a politician that would pass policy that's can for their business.
This doesn't mean we should have them, but there is utility. It's just not worth the trade-offs
It did a better job of predicting election outcomes than the polls. For markets without a cap, companies have used them to have against a politician that would pass policy that's can for their business.
This doesn't mean we should have them, but there is utility. It's just not worth the trade-offs