Upper bound of AI progress - recursive self improvement. In this case AI will be responsible for building better models, making people who own datacenters the winners. Anthropic/OAI is cooked.
Lower bound of AI progress - plateau. Progess is slowing, focus is on serving a meaningful peak capability at the lowest possible price. There's been news today that Google is building a Gemini chip with weights baked into silicon. Considering a chip's lifetime of 2-3 years at minimum, and that a 2-3 year model today would be useless today, they're expecting they wont make a similar amount of progress in the next 3. Game is about selling at the lowest margin. Anthropic/OAI is cooked.
So their survival rests on the presumption that AI progress will fall between these two extremes.
Lower bound of AI progress - plateau. Progess is slowing, focus is on serving a meaningful peak capability at the lowest possible price. There's been news today that Google is building a Gemini chip with weights baked into silicon. Considering a chip's lifetime of 2-3 years at minimum, and that a 2-3 year model today would be useless today, they're expecting they wont make a similar amount of progress in the next 3. Game is about selling at the lowest margin. Anthropic/OAI is cooked.
So their survival rests on the presumption that AI progress will fall between these two extremes.