> if you believe it will rain with probability 0.7 but you are 80% sure of your belief
What does this even mean...?
If I believe it will rain with probability 0.7, that 0.7 figure should already be taking into account the sum total of all of my uncertainty over all of my beliefs: my trust in the weather forecast, my past experience with the local area in this season, my certainty that the earth will continue to exist tomorrow.
Bayesians of course accept that their models can have errors, and if they're doing a good job they'll factor all of the most influential ones into the probability calculation itself.
What does this even mean...?
If I believe it will rain with probability 0.7, that 0.7 figure should already be taking into account the sum total of all of my uncertainty over all of my beliefs: my trust in the weather forecast, my past experience with the local area in this season, my certainty that the earth will continue to exist tomorrow.
Bayesians of course accept that their models can have errors, and if they're doing a good job they'll factor all of the most influential ones into the probability calculation itself.