There was a report a few months ago predicting 4°C by 2080. It came to this figure by selecting the most likely emission scenario and warming scenario from the GIEC report.
In particular, it is hard to be optimistic on the emission scenario nowadays. So the report opted for emissions starting to drop around 2040, if I remember correctly.
That's my new baseline. Sorry I cannot find the report anymore. I am pretty sure it was posted on hacker news though.
In particular, it is hard to be optimistic on the emission scenario nowadays. So the report opted for emissions starting to drop around 2040, if I remember correctly.
That's my new baseline. Sorry I cannot find the report anymore. I am pretty sure it was posted on hacker news though.