the ur-text behind this piece is: people just not understanding exponential capability growth. including the author of the piece!
if you could look clearly at the progress from 2020 to 2023, as someone like Gwern did, and from 2023 to 2024 with the invention of reasoning modes, then it was not that hard to understand what would happen in late 2025. Opus 4.5 was not a surprise to anyone who was actually paying attention.
But people (including the author) still mistake the current state as a stable state and future gains as incremental. he says
“I am not asserting that all code will eventually be AI-generated to spec, bypassing human understanding”
I AM asserting that, and it’s incredibly easy to do so.
if you could look clearly at the progress from 2020 to 2023, as someone like Gwern did, and from 2023 to 2024 with the invention of reasoning modes, then it was not that hard to understand what would happen in late 2025. Opus 4.5 was not a surprise to anyone who was actually paying attention.
But people (including the author) still mistake the current state as a stable state and future gains as incremental. he says
“I am not asserting that all code will eventually be AI-generated to spec, bypassing human understanding”
I AM asserting that, and it’s incredibly easy to do so.
The question of “when” is separate.