I don't know if Ed is far off the mark. But this article does nothing to help illuminate it.
He mixes estimated capex spend by like 3 different sources with actually commitments by the LLM providers.
He talks about how crazy it would be for ai providers to double revenue every year. But openai is doubling every 9 months and anthropic is doubling every 3.
It's obvious if AI consumption stops growing today those companies are in trouble, and if AI consumption keeps growing at current rates they'll be more than fine.
Most people expect growth rate to slow, just no one knows by how much. This will determine if there is an over build out or not.
He mixes estimated capex spend by like 3 different sources with actually commitments by the LLM providers.
He talks about how crazy it would be for ai providers to double revenue every year. But openai is doubling every 9 months and anthropic is doubling every 3.
It's obvious if AI consumption stops growing today those companies are in trouble, and if AI consumption keeps growing at current rates they'll be more than fine.
Most people expect growth rate to slow, just no one knows by how much. This will determine if there is an over build out or not.