In general, the tradeoff is between optimisations that help large programs vs optimisations that help small programs.
Do you have concrete examples of large scale Java programs that are significantly more performant than comparable programs in native languages like C++? My understanding was that this dynamic hadn't fundamentally changed much since the 2010s, when Java was able to occasionally edge out a win in 1-2 benchmarks and would lose handily in others. My experience is that large scale Java programs remain a bit of a bear even after significant optimization effort (e.g. Bazel).
There are of course plenty of optimizations the JVM does that aren't possible AOT, but that that doesn't imply an automatic win at large scales, as Rust demonstrates.
There are of course plenty of optimizations the JVM does that aren't possible AOT, but that that doesn't imply an automatic win at large scales, as Rust demonstrates.