If the prediction markets are between people, why do people bet against the mostly likely outcome at all ?
Real anecdote. For e.g, during Superbowl 2026. The markets were allowed bets to be placed until 6 minutes to close, when Seahawks were way ahead of New England Patriots.
The probablity of Seahawks winning was almost 99% and any person who places a 1000 dollar bet will make 1100 in 6 minutes. Where is the 100 dollar going to come from? Who loses that?
Real anecdote. For e.g, during Superbowl 2026. The markets were allowed bets to be placed until 6 minutes to close, when Seahawks were way ahead of New England Patriots. The probablity of Seahawks winning was almost 99% and any person who places a 1000 dollar bet will make 1100 in 6 minutes. Where is the 100 dollar going to come from? Who loses that?