I think his agenda here is to point out that your probability distribution for AI outcomes should be broad (what you said), but most importantly: this means you must take seriously the possibility that we are gonna get superintelligence quite soon.
Basically a lot of people say "but isn't it also pretty likely that we DON'T get superintelligence?" And, yes, it is. But superintelligence being even a remotely plausible outcome is a big fucking deal. Your investment choices in that context are not important.
People really struggle to think rationally in the face of this shape of uncertainty.
Basically a lot of people say "but isn't it also pretty likely that we DON'T get superintelligence?" And, yes, it is. But superintelligence being even a remotely plausible outcome is a big fucking deal. Your investment choices in that context are not important.
People really struggle to think rationally in the face of this shape of uncertainty.