Comment by nbosse

I think a fundamental problem is that the customer of a prediction market is the trader (gambler?), not the public. If you want accurate forecasts, you need sharp traders. If you want sharp traders, you need to pay them a lot. As a platform, the straightforward way to do that is to attract a large number of uninformed gamblers. And ultimately, the accuracy is not determined by volume, but by the fraction of informed and uninformed capital that is trading for idiosyncratic reasons uncorrelated to the "true" probability. Someone has to put in the effort to make the markets accurate, and that someone has to be paid and that money has to come from somewhere.