Sometimes I wonder if innovation in the AI space has stalled and recent progress is just a product of increased compute. Competence is increasing exponentially[1] but I guess it doesn't rule it out completely. I would postulate that a radical architecture shift is needed for the singularity though
[1]https://arxiv.org/html/2503.14499v1 *Source is from March 2025 so make of it what you will.