We knew the situation was bad years ago. And every year, we realise that we were optimistic.
And it feels like it will continue like this: it seems extremely unlikely that we discover that our models were actually pessimistic. When we "forget" to account for some effect, usually that effect makes it worse.
We keep confirming, over and over again, that from what we know the situation is really bad, and what we don't know makes it worse.
And it feels like it will continue like this: it seems extremely unlikely that we discover that our models were actually pessimistic. When we "forget" to account for some effect, usually that effect makes it worse.
We keep confirming, over and over again, that from what we know the situation is really bad, and what we don't know makes it worse.