By my estimation, there is a point where these models are "good enough" for the vast vast majority of all appropriate tasks, after which point further investment by the major labs will have diminishing returns. While they might stay ahead by some measure, the open models will be good enough too, and I assume significantly cheaper like they are now.
Or AGI hits and this theory collapses, but that's feeling less likely every day.
Or AGI hits and this theory collapses, but that's feeling less likely every day.