Short answer, no. If you're betting on an outcome that can be controlled by an individual or small group, the incentive is for them to game the system by doing the OPPOSITE of what the prediction is so as to make the most money.
"When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure"
"When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law