Having previously spent a reasonable amount of time on Metaculus I’m familiar with Brier scores and rating my confidence. I assume that’s how I was able to get better than average results. It’s an interesting app.
It’s something I’m interested improving on as well as predictions in general. I saw you suggested Thinking Fast and Slow and I’ve skimmed through some of Superforecasters. Metaculus have a bunch of resources too.
It’s something I’m interested improving on as well as predictions in general. I saw you suggested Thinking Fast and Slow and I’ve skimmed through some of Superforecasters. Metaculus have a bunch of resources too.
https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/