> For tasks that would take a human under four minutes—small bug fixes, boilerplate, simple implementations—AI can now do these with near-100% success. For tasks that would take a human around one hour, AI has a roughly 50% success rate. For tasks over four hours, it comes in below a 10% success rate
Opus 4.6 now does 12hr tasks with 50% success. The METR time horizon chart is insane… exponential progression.
> For tasks that would take a human under four minutes—small bug fixes, boilerplate, simple implementations—AI can now do these with near-100% success. For tasks that would take a human around one hour, AI has a roughly 50% success rate. For tasks over four hours, it comes in below a 10% success rate
Opus 4.6 now does 12hr tasks with 50% success. The METR time horizon chart is insane… exponential progression.