Nate Silver's calculations are certainly more sophisticated that a simple time-weighted average of legitimate polling numbers, but are they more accurate?
His baseball projection system, PECOTA, was extremely complex, but barely, barely outperformed a simple 3-year weighted average with an age component (Marcel), and some years was worse. Other projection systems that didn't take player comps into account were better overall than PECOTA (CHONE being the best, before the creator was hired away by a team).
His baseball projection system, PECOTA, was extremely complex, but barely, barely outperformed a simple 3-year weighted average with an age component (Marcel), and some years was worse. Other projection systems that didn't take player comps into account were better overall than PECOTA (CHONE being the best, before the creator was hired away by a team).