There are so many implicit premises in that short comment, such as:
- Incredibly smart people are always right when it comes to extremely complex systems involving both deterministic behavior and human psychology
- The people with the nuclear codes will be given their orders by (or themselves be) incredibly smart people
- Wargames work (they have a horrible track record)
- The best plans are based on a complete understanding of the starting conditions and the factors that influence the modelling (including the "unknown unknowns")
- Incredibly smart people are always right when it comes to extremely complex systems involving both deterministic behavior and human psychology - The people with the nuclear codes will be given their orders by (or themselves be) incredibly smart people - Wargames work (they have a horrible track record) - The best plans are based on a complete understanding of the starting conditions and the factors that influence the modelling (including the "unknown unknowns")
I could go on.