Taking the opposite side of that bet, here is why:
* even if an openweight model appears on huggingface today, exceeding SOTA, given my extensive experience with a wide variety of model sizes, I would find it highly surprising the "99% of use cases" could be expressed in <100B model.
* Meanwhile: I pulled claude to look into consumer GPU VRAM growth rates, median consumer VRAM went 1-2GB @ 2015 to ~8GB @ 2026, rougly doubles every 5 years; top-end isn't much better, just ahead 2 cycles.
* Putting aside current ram sourcing issues, it seems very unlikely even high-end prosumers will routinely have >100GB VRAM (=ability to run quantized SOTA 100b model) before ~2035-2040.
* even if an openweight model appears on huggingface today, exceeding SOTA, given my extensive experience with a wide variety of model sizes, I would find it highly surprising the "99% of use cases" could be expressed in <100B model.
* Meanwhile: I pulled claude to look into consumer GPU VRAM growth rates, median consumer VRAM went 1-2GB @ 2015 to ~8GB @ 2026, rougly doubles every 5 years; top-end isn't much better, just ahead 2 cycles.
* Putting aside current ram sourcing issues, it seems very unlikely even high-end prosumers will routinely have >100GB VRAM (=ability to run quantized SOTA 100b model) before ~2035-2040.