Predictive models are not the same as historic data analysis and trend fitting.
Flipping coins: no predictive models, very definitive statistics
Weather: +/- 2 week predictive models, 100 years of measurements getting more definitive each year where trend are headed
Flipping coins: no predictive models, very definitive statistics Weather: +/- 2 week predictive models, 100 years of measurements getting more definitive each year where trend are headed