In my humble opinion, China taking Taiwan, if done under Trump, will be the market buying event of the century.
It will tank the markets because people will assume a depression-level event and WW3. But Trump isn't like other presidents. He'll make a deal with China. And finally, the China/Taiwan cloud over the markets will go away for good and countries can start trading freely with China again. Markets will severely over react initially.
I can see TSMC benefiting hugely from this long term, as long as the reunification is peaceful no damage to any TSMC fabs or people. The reason is because TSMC will most likely be forced to open up to both Chinese and US customers. Right now, they can't serve the world's second largest market. Nearly half of their customers can't use them.
I'm making these assumptions:
1. China won't use force (or very very little) to take Taiwan.
2. There won't be WW3 that will come out of this. You'd have to be an idiot to think that Americans will die defending Taiwan or that Europe will send troops when China is quickly becoming their biggest trading partners and US has shown they're susceptible to annexing Greenland.
3. China will operate 1 country 2 system long term with Taiwan.
It will tank the markets because people will assume a depression-level event and WW3. But Trump isn't like other presidents. He'll make a deal with China. And finally, the China/Taiwan cloud over the markets will go away for good and countries can start trading freely with China again. Markets will severely over react initially.
I can see TSMC benefiting hugely from this long term, as long as the reunification is peaceful no damage to any TSMC fabs or people. The reason is because TSMC will most likely be forced to open up to both Chinese and US customers. Right now, they can't serve the world's second largest market. Nearly half of their customers can't use them.
I'm making these assumptions:
1. China won't use force (or very very little) to take Taiwan.
2. There won't be WW3 that will come out of this. You'd have to be an idiot to think that Americans will die defending Taiwan or that Europe will send troops when China is quickly becoming their biggest trading partners and US has shown they're susceptible to annexing Greenland.
3. China will operate 1 country 2 system long term with Taiwan.