Comment by melanie_io

That is a fair point. However, even if you adjust the assumptions for expected value to be 3% (vs 25%, which is what I use), it is still an expected value of $43,000, over 14x greater than that of your average "I want to be the next Instagram" app. I wanted to use 2 hypothetical examples with some reasonable assumptions just to show the staggering difference in probabilities of each scenario.