Something that appears to be missing: Certain events attract "advertising" types of bets. E.g. There is value in making a candidate appear to be a leader, so dedicating dollars to swinging the market is more of a form of advertising than an intelligent bet.
So it would be interesting to measure the inefficiencies of various bets vs the total market value in that bet.
e: Although full disclosure, I did not pick apart the entire paper. Maybe it's buried in there.
So it would be interesting to measure the inefficiencies of various bets vs the total market value in that bet.
e: Although full disclosure, I did not pick apart the entire paper. Maybe it's buried in there.