Comment Comment by btilly I was curious about how reliable we should predict a Falcon 9 launch to be based on the stated design parameters (survives the loss of any 2 engines) and current launch data.I found that under a simple Bayesian model, the estimated probability of catastrophic failure during the next launch is 3.6%. See http://bentilly.blogspot.com/2012/10/how-reliable-will-falco... for details.Update: I made a careless calculation error. Change 3.6% to 2%. Oops. parent btilly 14 years ago
I found that under a simple Bayesian model, the estimated probability of catastrophic failure during the next launch is 3.6%. See http://bentilly.blogspot.com/2012/10/how-reliable-will-falco... for details.
Update: I made a careless calculation error. Change 3.6% to 2%. Oops.