I think you're missing the point of "AI winter". It's not about how good the products are now. It's about how quickly the products are improving and creating the potential for profit. That's what drives investment.
3 things we know about the AI revolution in 2025:
- LLMs are amazing, but they have reached a plateau. AGI is not within reach.
- LLM investment has sacrificed many hundreds of billions of dollars, much of it from the world's pension funds.
- There is no credible path to a high-margin LLM product. Margins will be razor-thin positive at best once the free trial of the century starts to run out of steam.
This all adds up to a rather nasty crunch.
The thing about winter, though, is that it's eventually followed by another summer.
3 things we know about the AI revolution in 2025:
- LLMs are amazing, but they have reached a plateau. AGI is not within reach.
- LLM investment has sacrificed many hundreds of billions of dollars, much of it from the world's pension funds.
- There is no credible path to a high-margin LLM product. Margins will be razor-thin positive at best once the free trial of the century starts to run out of steam.
This all adds up to a rather nasty crunch.
The thing about winter, though, is that it's eventually followed by another summer.