You're right. 10-20 DAU from 35k installs is catastrophic.
Of those 10-20 DAU, probably 8-10 are the power users who use it 7/7 days (Level 100+ users, CV <0.5). So yes, sticky users exist but they're <0.1% of
installs.
I'm not 'focusing on monetization' - I gave up on retention months ago. Tried:
- 4 onboarding rebuilds
- AI coaching
- Gamification (quests, XP)
- WearOS app
- Daily notifications
- Early wins in first session
D1 retention stayed at 4.2% through all of it. Nothing moved the needle.
So I shifted to: 'Can I monetize the 10-20 who stuck?' Answer: No. They won't pay because free tier is complete.
You're saying I should fix retention first. Fair. But after months of trying and 0.0% improvement, at what point do you accept the category is broken or the product doesn't work for 99% of people?
The 'hocus pocus' analysis was trying to understand if the 1% who stick have patterns I can replicate. They do (regular schedule + high cognitive load). But I can't find more of them or get them to pay.
Of those 10-20 DAU, probably 8-10 are the power users who use it 7/7 days (Level 100+ users, CV <0.5). So yes, sticky users exist but they're <0.1% of installs.
I'm not 'focusing on monetization' - I gave up on retention months ago. Tried:
- 4 onboarding rebuilds - AI coaching - Gamification (quests, XP) - WearOS app - Daily notifications - Early wins in first session
D1 retention stayed at 4.2% through all of it. Nothing moved the needle.
So I shifted to: 'Can I monetize the 10-20 who stuck?' Answer: No. They won't pay because free tier is complete.
You're saying I should fix retention first. Fair. But after months of trying and 0.0% improvement, at what point do you accept the category is broken or the product doesn't work for 99% of people?
The 'hocus pocus' analysis was trying to understand if the 1% who stick have patterns I can replicate. They do (regular schedule + high cognitive load). But I can't find more of them or get them to pay.