>What takes the long amount of time and the way to think about it is that it’s a march of nines. Every single nine is a constant amount of work. Every single nine is the same amount of work. When you get a demo and something works 90% of the time, that’s just the first nine. Then you need the second nine, a third nine, a fourth nine, a fifth nine. While I was at Tesla for five years or so, we went through maybe three nines or two nines. I don’t know what it is, but multiple nines of iteration. There are still more nines to go.
I think this is an important way of understanding AI progress. Capability improvements often look exponential on a particular fixed benchmark, but the difficulty of the next step up is also often exponential, and so you get net linear improvement with a wider perspective.
I think this is an important way of understanding AI progress. Capability improvements often look exponential on a particular fixed benchmark, but the difficulty of the next step up is also often exponential, and so you get net linear improvement with a wider perspective.