> at least for now.
I know I could be eating my words, but there is basically no evidence to suggest it ever becomes as exceptional as the kingmakers are hoping.
Yes it advanced extremely quickly, but that is not a confirmation of anything. It could just be the technology quickly meeting us at either our limit of compute, or it's limit of capability.
My thinking here is that we already had the technologies of the LLMs and the compute, but we hadn't yet had the reason and capital to deploy it at this scale.
So the surprising innovation of transformers did not give us the boost in capability itself, it still needed scale. The marketing that enabled the capital, that enables that scale was what caused the insane growth, and capital can't grow forever, it needs returns.
Scale has been exponential, and we are hitting an insane amount of capital deployment for this one technology that, has yet to prove commercially viable at the scale of a paradigm shift.
Are businesses that are not AI based, actually seeing ROI on AI spend? That is really the only question that matters, because if that is false, the money and drive for the technology vanishes and the scale that enables it disappears too.
I know I could be eating my words, but there is basically no evidence to suggest it ever becomes as exceptional as the kingmakers are hoping.
Yes it advanced extremely quickly, but that is not a confirmation of anything. It could just be the technology quickly meeting us at either our limit of compute, or it's limit of capability.
My thinking here is that we already had the technologies of the LLMs and the compute, but we hadn't yet had the reason and capital to deploy it at this scale.
So the surprising innovation of transformers did not give us the boost in capability itself, it still needed scale. The marketing that enabled the capital, that enables that scale was what caused the insane growth, and capital can't grow forever, it needs returns.
Scale has been exponential, and we are hitting an insane amount of capital deployment for this one technology that, has yet to prove commercially viable at the scale of a paradigm shift.
Are businesses that are not AI based, actually seeing ROI on AI spend? That is really the only question that matters, because if that is false, the money and drive for the technology vanishes and the scale that enables it disappears too.