"They're describing reality" - No, they're making predictions about the future. If AGI requires 30 years of compute improvements as you say, then it's not reality, it's a forecast contingent on those 30 years of development continuing unimpeded.
As for "oppressive regime", we already do this for nuclear and biotech, and most people find it quite palatable! Nuclear materials are tightly controlled globally. Cloning humans is illegal almost everywhere. We've had the knowledge for both for decades, yet basement nukes and basement human clones aren't happening.
I'm not saying we should make it illegal, I'm just saying there are more gray areas than what's generally accounted for.
As for "oppressive regime", we already do this for nuclear and biotech, and most people find it quite palatable! Nuclear materials are tightly controlled globally. Cloning humans is illegal almost everywhere. We've had the knowledge for both for decades, yet basement nukes and basement human clones aren't happening.
I'm not saying we should make it illegal, I'm just saying there are more gray areas than what's generally accounted for.